Dubai’s residential real estate market maintained its robust performance in June 2024, with both apartment and villa prices recording significant gains compared to the previous year. However, sales transaction volumes did see a slight decline for the first time since the pandemic.
Apartment Prices Surge
Apartment prices rose by 1.9% month-over-month and an impressive 23.4% annually. Several areas saw exceptional growth, including Discovery Gardens (34.5%), The Greens (33.7%), Palm Jumeirah (31.1%), and The Views (29.7%)[1]. Discovery Gardens continues to be an affordable area located on the main artery Sheikh Zayed Road and connectivity via 3 metro stops and access to Emirates Road. It is also well maintained by Nakheel, one of the biggest developers in Dubai.
The Greens and The Views are great purchases for new buyers in this mature community which is built and exceptionally maintained by Emaar. The location is right in the center of new Dubai with Dubai Marina, JLT and Emirates Living minutes away.
Palm Jumeirah continues to be a pinnacle of success with a vibrant community that has access to the 56 km of coastline and a plethora of activities including the famous Nakheel Mall, The Atlantis and the brand new Royal Atlantis.
Villa Prices Hit New Highs
The average freehold villa valuation crossed the AED 10 million mark in June 2024. Villa prices increased by 2.4% compared to May and 33.4% year-over-year. Top performers included villas in Palm Jumeirah (43.1%), Jumeirah Islands (42.5%), Dubai Hills Estate (38.5%), and Emirates Hills (33.6%)[1].
Palm Jumeirah is on a rocket ship to the moon. With prices at around AED 2.2m when launched to ‘the average price of a villa on Palm Jumeirah in June 2024 was AED 23,167,467’1 that’s over a 10X multiple in prices over the past 20 years, unfathomable in many other investment vehicles.
Jumeirah Islands has the same story, with only 50 clusters of 16 villas each (800 villas in total) this relatively small development has become the stomping ground of luxury flippers. Investors buy stock Jumeirah Islands homes, completely renovate them, and then sell them for AED 15m or more to high-end end users.
Dubai Hills Estate is finding it’s footing within the Dubai luxury villa market with Maple, Sidra and The Fairways bringing in buyers from all walks of life as well as access to Dubai Hills Golf Club and the huge Dubai Hills Mall.
Finally, Emirates Hills continues to be the crown jewel in the villa community. Described as the Beverly Hills of the Middle East, this is where you will find the top brass of the UAE business community. With around 600 villas (and a few plots left) Emirates Hills has views of multiple lakes and has the Ernie Els Golf Course running through it. Homes here have sold for a whopping AED 750 million ($204 million) demonstrating the astronomical wealth that is centered in this small 12 square kilometer community.
Sales Transactions Decline
Off-plan home sales registrations increased by 33% annually but declined 31.9% monthly, following May’s record highs. Ready home transactions saw annual declines of 19.4% since May and 2.6% since June last year[1]. The slight decline from May to June can be because summer in the UAE is when families fly out to avoid the heat and developers cool off on new launches till September.
Prime Home Sales Remain Strong
There were 15 transactions for ready properties priced over AED 30 million, situated in Palm Jumeirah, Business Bay, Jumeirah Bay Island, Emirates Hills, and Dubai Hills Estate[1].
Top Developers and Locations
In June 2024, Emaar (12%), Damac (8.2%), Azizi (5.8%), Sobha (8.2%), Danube (5.4%), and Nakheel (4.5%) led the developer sales charts overall. Top off-plan locations included projects in Business Bay (9.7%), Jumeirah Village Circle (8.2%), Meydan One (6.4%), and Arjan (4.7%). The majority of ready homes sold were in Jumeirah Village Circle (8.2%), Business Bay (6.7%), Dubai Marina (6%), Downtown Dubai (4.7%), and International City (3.7%)[1].
Dubai’s residential market continues to demonstrate its resilience and appeal to investors and end-users alike. While sales volumes have moderated slightly, the sustained growth in prices across both apartments and villas underscores the strength of the market.
Conclusion
An interesting point to note is the recent surge of millionaires relocating to the UAE, particularly Dubai, reflects a broader trend of wealthy individuals seeking more favorable tax environments amid increasing fiscal pressures in their home countries. In Europe, changes in tax regimes, such as the UK’s abolition of the non-domiciled tax status and France’s potential reinstatement of a wealth tax, have prompted many affluent residents to consider moving their families and operations to the UAE.
Similarly, political instability and heightened taxation in countries like China and India are driving the wealthy to seek stability and attractive tax incentives in places like Dubai, which offers zero income tax and a vibrant lifestyle. This migration not only underscores the competitive landscape for attracting high-net-worth individuals but also highlights the shifting global wealth dynamics as traditional havens face new challenges.2
Citations:
[1] https://ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws.com/web/direct-files/23087013/92f16fcd-c77d-4416-aaa0-5eec7da06347/VPI_Dubai_Residential_Values_-_June_2024.pdf